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Prediction for CME (2025-06-15T08:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-15T08:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39504/-1
CME Note: Bright asymmetrical CME seen to the west in all three coronagraphs. Its source is the M2.2 flare from AR 4105 (S15W70) peaking 2025-06-15T07:56Z and the associated eruption with faint ejecta seen going westward in GOES SUVI 304, post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and EUVI A 195, and a relatively small area of dimming centered around (S11W65) seen in SDO AIA 193 and even clearer in EUVI A 195. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T07:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-18T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 45.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Expected arrival time: 2025-06-18T22:00:00Z

    Arrival time uncertainty: 12


    Estimated peak K: 5

    Peak K uncertainty: 1


    Probability of arrival: 45


    CME start time: 2025-06-15T08:00:00Z

Lead Time: 65.88 hour(s)
Difference: 9.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2025-06-16T13:07Z

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